Hi everyone,

Today's FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed felt key rates were low enough to spur economic activity. The stock markets initially reacted negatively to the news since traders were expecting a rate cut, but then staged a rally that pushed the Dow up 141 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points.

The bond market did not fair so well. As expected, as soon as stocks started to rise, bonds suffered. The same funds that were moved into bonds and drove prices higher yesterday, now were hurting bonds as they were shifted back into stocks. The result was the bond market closing down 26/32 and a sizable increase to mortgage rates. I suspect that there is more room for bonds to fall if stocks continue to move higher. Therefore, holding the lock recommendations seem to be the prudent stance at this time.

Today's on ly relevant economic data was August's Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a decline in the overall reading of 0.1% and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. Both of these readings matched forecasts, therefore, they had little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates.

August's Housing Starts report is the only relevant data being posted tomorrow morning. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Tomorrow's report is expected to show a drop in new housing starts from July's levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Eisrael

831-809-8266

This is an excerpt from the Daily Breifing from the California Association of Realtors's president:

Key components of the Treasury’s proposal include:

• The authority to issue up to $700 billion of Treasury securities to finance the purchase of troubled residential and commercial mortgage-related assets, including mortgage-backed securities and loans.
• This authority would expire in two years, and assets must have been originated or issued on or before Sept. 17, 2008, to qualify.
• Assets will be managed by private asset managers at the direction of the Treasury.
• Cash received from liquidating the assets will be returned to the Treasury’s general fund for the benefit of taxpayers.
• Funding for the program will be provided directly by the Treasury from its general fund by increasing its debt limit by $700 billion.
• Once the program is up and running, Treasury will provide updates to Congress semi-annually.

The proposal also grants Treasury Secretary Paulson sweeping authority regarding the purchase of assets, the timing and sale of assets, determining financial institutions’ eligibility to participate and more. To access a fact sheet on the Treasury proposal, go to http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp1150.htm.

Stay tuned....

Sept. 8, 2008

Dear C.A.R. Member:

This weekend, the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), into a conservatorship. The federal government is authorized to take up to an 80 percent stake in the companies, and, as part of its duties under the conservatorship, will review both Fannie’s and Freddie’s financial condition quarterly, as well as inject money into the operations as needed.

Under the conservatorship, both GSEs will be allowed to increase their mortgage funding over the next year and a half, then, beginning in 2010, the plan calls for a reduction in their portfolios of 10 per cent a year until they have been reduced to $250 billion. As part of this weekend’s action, both CEOs were relieved of their duties and Herbert Allison, former Merrill Lynch vice chairman, and David Moffett, former U.S. Bancorp CFO, were selected to lead Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively.

In light of the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury’s action, C.A.R. today reaffirmed its support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their countercyclical roles.

While the short-term impact of the Treasury’s actions over the weekend served to calm the markets and restore confidence, in the longer term these entities need to be able to fulfill their historic mission. A privatized Fannie and Freddie will short-circuit the countercyclical role the GSEs have played during precarious times in real estate markets.

Without an institutionalized mortgage-backed securities market, mortgage capital eventually will be less predictable and more expensive, and adjustable-rate mortgages could become the standard loan for home buyers, as could higher down payment requirements. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as we know it will no longer be readily available for most home buyers and may effectively disappear. The result could be a dramatic decline in homeownership rates in California and across the nation.

C.A.R. is concerned that the Treasury, and Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s new CEOs, will overreact and change the mission and role of the GSEs. Wall Street and investors are understandably reluctant to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) that are not either originated from or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

The GSEs hold or have securitized nearly half -- roughly $5 trillion -- of all mortgages in the U.S., and in the current environment with private lender constraints, they account for the vast majority of all new mortgages in California.

We have just recently begun to see an increase in home sales, currently at nearly 490,000 units on an annualized basis, up from 284,000 in the fourth quarter of last year. The most significant, reliable source of home loans in California today are financed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. California’s and the nation’s housing markets simply cannot withstand the financial rug being pulled out from beneath them. Additionally, the repercussions this could have on the already weak economy could be devastating.

C.A.R. is urging lawmakers to support continued government involvement in supporting the institutional secondary market and its role in creating homeownership opportunities. While we applaud the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury for increasing the GSEs portfolio limits, we will be asking Congress to enact legislation to ensure the two companies continue to fulfill their mission.

To help your clients understand the role of the GSEs, please take a look at a new video featuring C.A.R. Executive Vice President Joel Singer at http://www.car.org/newsstand/video-js-gse. In “Fannie and Freddie: Why They Matter to You,” Joel explains the often confusing but critical role Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play in the housing market in clear and concise terms. I’m also featured in a new video developed especially for our members about the GSEs. You can find "Understanding Fannie and Freddie” on the car.org home page at www.car.org. I hope you find them useful. We’ll also be tracking the story for you as it develops in Wednesday’s “C.A.R. Newsline,” and will have additional information to help you make sense of the story for consumers in this Thursday’s edition of “Market Matters.”

Sincerely,

William E. Brown
2008 President
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®